School Seminars and Colloquia

Epidemics and rumours: the effect of network structure on transmission dynamics

Statistics Seminar

by Valerie Isham


Institution: University College, London
Date: Fri 29th July 2011
Time: 4:00 PM
Location: Room 215 Richard Berry Building, University of Melbourne

Abstract: The basic (SIR) epidemic model for the spread of infection in a homogeneously-mixing population is a special case of a more general stochastic model used for the spread of information (a `rumour’). In both cases it is well known that there is a threshold for widespread transmission. More generally, for both epidemics and rumours, there is particular interest in using a network to represent population structure. This ensures that some pairs of individuals are never in contact, and direct spread between them cannot occur. Natural applications are to the spread of infection or information on social networks. In this talk, I will review simple epidemic and rumour models, and describe networks generated by a range of random mechanisms. I will then discuss the effect of different network structures on the transmission dynamics of epidemics or rumours on networks and, in particular, the effect of different network properties on thresholds for widespread transmission.

For More Information: contact: Mihee Lee. email: miheel@unimelb.edu.au