School Seminars and Colloquia

Forecasting and the importance of being uncertain

BELZ Lecture Series

by Professor Rob J Hyndman


Institution: Department of Econometrics & Business Statistics, Monash University, Victoria
Date: Tue 24th October 2006
Time: 6:15 PM
Location: Old Geology Theatre 1, The University of Melbourne

Abstract: Forecasters had an inauspicious beginning, dabbling with divination,
sheep's livers and vapour-ridden caves in the mountains of Greece. Then there was a time when forecasters could be charged with vagrancy! Their reputations are still tarnished, but their tools are
rather more effective. Professor Rob Hyndman will argue for the importance of statistical modelling in forecasting, and demonstrate
the dangers that occur when uncertainty is ignored. In particular, he will consider the importance of prediction intervals in providing
forecasts, and the dangers of "what-if" scenario projections that are popular in business and government. He will also show that several popular data mining methods ignore uncertainty leading to
unrealistic expectations. Finally, he will provide a forecast of the future of statistics.

For More Information: Associate Professor Ray Watson, Email: R.Watson@ms.unimelb.edu.au