Stochastic population forecasts using functional data models
by Professor Rob J Hyndman
Abstract: I will present a new approach to age-specific forecasting of
population based on separate forecasts of mortality, fertility and net migration. Functional data models with time series coefficients will
be used to model mortality and fertility rates, and net migration.
These models are then used in a Monte Carlo simulation of future mortality, fertility and net migration, to give age-specific forecast
distributions of the population by sex. The forecast distributions
allow the calculation of prediction intervals for the population size of any age group, and for any derived variables such as old-age
dependency and life expectancy. The method is demonstrated by making
20-year forecasts for Australia.
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