School Seminars and Colloquia

Stochastic population forecasts using functional data models

Applied Statistics Seminar

by Professor Rob J Hyndman


Institution: Monash University
Date: Thu 22nd February 2007
Time: 12:00 PM
Location: Room 213, Richard Berry Building, The University of Melbourne

Abstract: I will present a new approach to age-specific forecasting of
population based on separate forecasts of mortality, fertility and net migration. Functional data models with time series coefficients will
be used to model mortality and fertility rates, and net migration.
These models are then used in a Monte Carlo simulation of future mortality, fertility and net migration, to give age-specific forecast
distributions of the population by sex. The forecast distributions
allow the calculation of prediction intervals for the population size of any age group, and for any derived variables such as old-age
dependency and life expectancy. The method is demonstrated by making
20-year forecasts for Australia.

For More Information: Dr Owen Jones: odj@mailhost.ms.unimelb.edu.au