School Seminars and Colloquia

Estimating Probabilities for Managing Biological Populations

School Seminar

by Alana Moore


Institution: The University of Melbourne
Date: Tue 11th November 2008
Time: 12:00 PM
Location: Russell Love Theatre, Richard Berry Bldg, The Uni of Melb

Abstract: The work in my thesis was motivated by a desire to understand the value of
information, and hence the role of monitoring, for managing biological
populations. The value of information for making a one-off decision is
reasonably well understood, however, understanding the value of
information when making a sequence of decisions is a much more difficult
problem.

In the first half of my talk, I will consider the problem of controlling
an invasive pest species when only partial observations are available at
each time step. In the model considered, the monitoring data available are
binomial observations of a probability which is an index of the population
size.

In the second half of my talk I will discuss a different problem,
concerned with the benefit of sacrificing short-term rewards in order to
improve estimates of a static probability which may improve long-term
profits.

For More Information: Contact: Paul Pearce P.Pearce@ms.unimelb.edu.au