Over the period during which life has existed on earth, the climate has
been sufficiently stable to enable life to continue. However, on geological
time scales there have been major changes in climate, and some of these
changes have been abrupt. Nevertheless, there is increasing evidence that
human activity is changing the climate faster than almost all past change,
due to the input to the atmosphere of the so-called greenhouse gases. Comprehensive
assessments of the state of scientific knowledge of climate change are
undertaken by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
with major reports released in 1990, 1996 and 2001.
MASCOS project in uncertainty analysis
This is joint work between Ian Enting and Andrew
Rechnitzer The project aims to adapt Monte Carlo techniques from statistical
physics in order to investigate models of global change and other natural
systems exhibiting possible bifurcations and instabilities.
Proposed applications include:
Analysis of the so-called Brazilian Proposal
which, as an alternative to the Kyoto Protocol, proposed setting targets
for emission reductions that depend on the relative extent to which individual
nations are responsible for the greenhouse effect.
Analysis of consquences of alternative choices for future patterns of greenhouse
Complex systems connections
Complex systems statistics in the interpretation of observations of global
change (MORE) .
See also, Falkowski et al (Science, 290, 291 (2000)) discussion
of the carbon cycle as a complex system.
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not represent the views or policies of the University of Melbourne.
Ian Enting: last update 17/9/04.