Search Help Dept. of Mathematics & Statistics
coloured square The University of Melbourne
620-201
Probability
Semester I, 2008

  • Uni handbook

    entry for 620-201 Probability.

  • Lectures:

    Venue: JH Michell Theatre (Richard Berry Bldg)

    Day/time:
    Monday, 1:00 pm - 2:00 pm
    Wednesday & Friday, 11:00 am -12:00 noon

  • Lecturer:

    A/Prof Kostya Borovkov

    Office hours for 620-201 during semester:

    Wednesday, 2 pm - 4 pm; Friday, 1 pm - 2 pm

    Office: Room 225, Richard Berry Bldg,
    e-mail: kostyaZ@Zms.Zunimelb.edu.au

    Attention: antispam measure! You may wish to remove all the three literals Z from the above e-mail address before using it.

    Consultation hours for other staff involved in teaching this subject: click HERE

  • A few end-of-semester announcements:

    Pre-exam consultation will be held on Wednesday 18 June 2008, starting at 11:00 am.
    Venue: Prince Philip Theatre (Architecture).

    Marked HW-10 papers (+ uncollected marked papers from previous weeks) are in the 620-201 wallets (with your tutors' names on them) on the rack next to Room D.

    FYI: The term "calculator" is defined to mean a device whether programmable or not which has as its only function numerical calculation, and does not include devices which have additional functions such as text storage and retrieval.
    (Academic Board of the UofM.)

    Life is good.

  • Tutor-coordinator:

    Dr Mark Fackrell

    Office: Room G47, Richard Berry Bldg,
    e-mail: M.FackrellZ@Zms.Zunimelb.edu.au

    Attention: antispam measure! You may wish to remove all the three literals Z from the above e-mail address before using it.

  • Tutes & labs:

    Starting week 2 of semester, there are one 1-hour tutorial and one 1-hour prac lab (immediately after the tutorial) per week. You can view your lecture/tute/prac allocation using the on-line timetable system Alloc8 .

    Please note: As a rule, at least one of the weekly homework problems will be computer lab-based. Attending the labs is vital for doing such problems.

  • Handouts/downloads:

    click here to download the handout distributed in class on the first lecture (on Monday, 3 March).

    NB: Most of the downloadable from this page files are in the Adobe Acrobat format; you will need Adobe Acrobat Reader or the Acrobat plugin for your Web browser to view/print these documents. Most likely, the software has already been installed on the computer you are using. If not, Adobe Acrobat Reader is a freely distributable software; you can click here to download it.

  • Lecture notes:

    Cover most of the course. Sets of printed lecture notes can be purchased from the Uni Bookshop.

    A bug in the Printed Notes: on p.225, first line from below, the answers to Test 1 are: BDCBD CCCEA CEABD (Source: A/Prof Ray Watson, the author of the Printed Notes.)

  • Lecture transparencies:

    For your convenience, we put the scans of the slides used in lectures on the Web; they are different from the printed lecture notes (the latter basically constitute a textbook for this subject). You may wish to download and print out the lecture transparencies so that you could bring them with you to class (which is our advice).

    NB: It may happen that not all the slides available on the Web will be (or have been) shown in lectures! Also, it may happen that a slide planned for week N will be shown in week M, N≠M.

    If you spot any bugs/typos etc on the slides, please let the lecturer know. Thanks!

    • Set #1 (slides 1-51; covers week 1 and part of week 2).
    • Set #2 (slides 52-74; roughly covers Lectures 6-7.5, i.e. Friday Week 2 - part of Wednesday lecture Week 3)
      In addition, you may wish to have a look at the Wikipedia articles on mathematical induction and geometric series.
    • Set #3 (slides 75-107; this will hopefully take us to the middle of lecture 11).
    • Set #4 (slides 107a-139; this will hopefully take us to the middle of lecture 14).
    • Set #5 (slides 140-170; this will hopefully take us to the middle of lecture 17).
    • Set #6 (slides 171-204; this will hopefully take us to the middle of lecture 20).
    • Set #7 (slides 205-228; this will hopefully take us to the middle of lecture 22).
    • Set #8 (slides 229-258; this will hopefully take us to the middle of lecture 25).
    • Set #9 (slides 259-294; this will hopefully take us to the middle of lecture 28).
    • Set #10 (slides 295-324; this will hopefully take us to the middle of lecture 32 or so).
    • Set #11 (slides 325-346; this will hopefully take us to the end of the subject).
    • Set #12 (slides from this set will not be shown in class. Actually, there is no Set #12 for this subject.)

  • Recommended books:

    You do not need to buy any books. The books below are recommended as additional optional reading only, in no particular order. Other editions of the texts below and other texts as well will be helpful, too. BUT: the lecture notes and lecture handouts will cover the material that is examinable.

    • J Pitman, Probability. New York: Springer, 1992. [Available at: UniM ERC, TB 519.2 PITM; UniM Maths 519.2 P683]
    • R L Scheaffer, Introduction to Probability and its Applications. Boston: PWS-KENT Pub, 1990. [Available at: UniM ERC 519.2 SCHE]
    • L J Bain, M Engelhardt, Introduction to Probability and Mathematical Statistics. Boston: Duxbury Press, 1987. [Available at: UniM Maths 519.2 BAIN.]
    • R Hogg, E Tanis, Probability and Statistical Inference. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall, 4th edn. 2006. [Available at: UniM Baill 519.54 HOGG.]
    • M H DeGroot, Probability and Statistics. Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley, 2nd edn. 1988. [Available at: UniM ERC 519.2 DEG 1.]
    • J G Kalbfleisch, Probability and Statistical Inference. Vol.1. New York: Springer. 2nd edn. 1985. [Available at: UniM Baill 519.54 KALB V.1.]

  • Further additional reading:

    This is a list of "Popular Science" books on probability borrowed from David Aldous' list of "Non-technical books relating to Probability". Just in case you may be interested.

    • S Senn, Dicing With Death. Chance, risk and health. Cambridge University Press, 2003.
    • P L Bernstein, Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk. Wiley, 1996.
    • J S Rosenthal, Struck by Lightning: the curious world of probabilities. Joseph Henry Press, 2006.
    • B K Holland, What are the Chances? Voodoo deaths, office gossip and other adventures in probability. Johns Hopkins, 2002.
    • M Kaplan and E Kaplan, Chances Are: Adventures in Probability. Viking, 2006.
    • I Peterson, The Jungles of Randomness. Wiley, 1998.
    • I Ekeland, The Broken Dice, and other mathematical tales of chance. University of Chicago Press, 1993.
    • D J Bennett, Randomness. Harvard University Press, 1999.
    • B S Everitt, Chance Rules. Copernicus, 1999.
    • A D Aczel, Chance. A guide to gambling, love, the stock market, and just about everything else. Thunder's Mouth Press, 2004.

  • Problems:

    Problem Sheets (incl. homework problems and computer lab sheets) are (usually) distributed in lectures on Fridays. They are supposed to appear on the Web on the same day.

  • Assessment:

    You will be given weekly homework. Each week you will have to submit your solutions to the problems from the homework by the due time. Only two out of N≥4 homework problems will be marked each time, and these problems will be chosen at random after the submission time. Late homework will receive no mark (unless you qualify for special consideration, in which case special arrangements may be made--please contact the tutor-coordinator for the subject).

    There will be a 3-hour end of semester exam. The final mark for this subject will be computed according to the following formula:

    Final Mark = 0.8 x Exam Mark (out of 100) + 0.2 x Total Homework Mark (out of 100)

  • Generic skills:

    In addition to learning specific technical skills that will assist you in your future careers in science, engineering, commerce, education or elsewhere, you will have the opportunity to develop in this subject generic skills that will assist you whatever your future career path:

    • you will develop problem-solving skills including engaging with unfamiliar problems and identifying relevant strategies;
    • you will develop analytical skills - the ability to construct and express logical arguments and to work in abstract or general terms to increase the clarity and efficiency of the analysis;
    • through interactions with fellow students, you will develop the ability to work in a team. The department distinguishes between ethical collaboration which is strongly encouraged and plagiarism, which is prohibited;
    • through practice classes and other interactions with fellow students, you will develop the ability to work in a team. The department distinguishes between ethical collaboration which is strongly encouraged and plagiarism, which is prohibited.

    (From the Department's generic statement.)

  • Miscellanea

    • Something may appear here later on. But may be not.

    • Student reps in 620-201 are:

      • Vassko Rumchev
      • Chow Chi Yeung Sunny
      • Ani Rajgopal
      • Slesha Puja Devi

    • Some past exam papers and answers to them:

    • On failing successfully

      This is a transcript of an ABC Radio National/Ockham's Razor broadcast. Mark Dodgson, Director of the Technology and Innovation Management Centre at the University of Queensland, suggests that failure doesn't get the credit it deserves: "And as Henry Ford put it, 'Failure is only the opportunity to begin again more intelligently'. I want to argue that failure doesn't get the credit it deserves. If you want to understand success, you must appreciate the ubiquity of failure, and if you're not regularly failing, you're not trying hard enough."

 

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Created: 06 February 2008
Last modified: recently
Authorised by: K Borovkov, Department of Mathematics and Statistics.

Maintained by: K.Borovkov, Department of Mathematics and Statistics.
Email: K.Borovkov@ms.unimelb.edu.au